Select Language

EUR/AUD Price Forecast: Climbs as traders eye 1.6300 and await Aussie jobs data

Breaking news

EUR/AUD Price Forecast: Climbs as traders eye 1.6300 and await Aussie jobs data

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.11.14 07:19
EUR/AUD Price Forecast: Climbs as traders eye 1.6300 and await Aussie jobs data

update 2024.11.14 07:19

  • EUR/AUD recovers from daily lows, and traders await the October job report in Australia.
  • Technical stance shows EUR/AUD near key support; a drop below 1.6238 could target 1.6200 and lower supports.
  • Upside potential exists with resistance at 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs at 1.6315, 1.6356, and 1.6386 respectively.

The shared currency stages a recovery against the Aussie Dollar on Wednesday, printing gains of over 0.18%, as traders await Australia's job report. At the time of writing, the EUR/AUD trades at 1.6284 after hitting a daily low of 1.6238.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will reveal employment figures for October. The Employment Change is estimated to have created 25K jobs, below September's outstanding 64.1K, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain at 4.1%.

EUR/AUD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/AUD is neutral to downward biased after the cross plunged below the 200, 100, and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), within a confluence zone at around 1.6315/86. Although the exchange rate aimed higher during the last three days, a drop below the November 13 low of 1.6238 could pave the way for 1.6200. A breach of the latter will expose intermediate support at 1.6161, the latest cycle low reached on November 7, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.6003.

Conversely, on further EUR/AUD strength, buyers must clear the 50-day SMA at 1.6315. If surpassed, up next would be the 100-day SMA at 1.6356, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.6386. Once surpassed, the following resistance would be the 1.6400 figure.

EUR/AUD Price Chart - Daily

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

 


Date

Created

 : 2024.11.14

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.11.14

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair tumbles and eyes break of 90.00-92.00 range

The NZD/JPY pair has been on a downward trajectory for the past three days, shedding 0.27% on Friday's session to close near the 90.30 level.
New
update2024.11.23 06:57

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges above $31.00 as US yields fall

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar.
New
update2024.11.23 06:31

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair fell to lowest level since November, bears command

The NZD/USD pair extended its losses on Friday, declining by 0.54% to 0.5830, its lowest level since early November.
New
update2024.11.23 06:18

Canadian Dollar loses momentum on Friday

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) waffled into the midrange on Friday, testing into the low side but ultimately getting hamstrung as Canadian data comes in mixed and gets overshadowed by sentiment-bolstering US data prints.
New
update2024.11.23 05:47

Australian Dollar retreats as US Dollar gains momentum after S&P PMI data

The AUD/USD declined just below 0.6500 as the market is focused on the US Dollar's strength.
New
update2024.11.23 05:07

Gold price reaches two-week peak as US yields fall, geopolitical tensions rise

Gold price rallies to a new two-week high on Friday during the North American session as US Treasury bond yields drop.
New
update2024.11.23 04:55

Dow Jones Industrial Average soars another 350 points

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has snapped its recent soft patch, extending its midweek bullish pivot into a firm Friday performance.
New
update2024.11.23 03:56

US Dollar retraces from two-year high after PMI data, geopolitical uncertainty prevails

In Friday's session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined slightly after reaching a new two-year high amidst geopolitical instability.
New
update2024.11.23 03:08

Mexican Peso slumps, shrugging off solid data

The Mexican Peso retreats for the third straight day versus the US Dollar, although economic data suggests the country's economy grew in the third quarter while inflation edged lower.
update2024.11.23 02:37

A (local) peak in Gold is now imminent - TDS

The downturn in Gold prices underscored by sharp liquidations from macro funds lined up exceptionally well with historical patterns surrounding drawdowns associated with macro fund liquidations from extreme levels, averaging between 7-10% over the last decade, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
update2024.11.23 01:02

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel