EUR/USD tests further into the red, approaches 16-week low

• EUR/USD lost another sixth of a percent on Tuesday, dipping below 1.0800.
• ECB Lagarde's middling comments did little to support Fiber bids.
• EU and US PMI set to clash on Thursday.

EUR/USD found further room on the low side on Tuesday, easing back another 0.16% and testing into a key technical barrier that could see fresh 16-week lows if the price floor opens up beneath the Euro.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde made a handful of appearances on Tuesday, but talking points that ranged from pedestrian to unremarkable did little to support the Fiber. ECB head Lagarde noted that the ECB "is not unhappy with what it has seen", adding in that the ECB "can't jump to conclusion that inflation target is a done deal", inspiring absolutely nobody in particular and delivering little of note in the way of forward guidance to currency markets that see the Euro on pace to backslide against the Greenback for a fourth consecutive week.

Global PMI figures are due for a rolling release on Thursday. Markets have high expectations for pan-EU PMI survey results, with median market forecasts calling for a slight uptick in October's EU Services PMI to 51.6 from September's 51.4.

EUR/USD price forecast

The EUR/USD pair continues to exhibit bearish momentum as it remains under pressure, trading near 1.0800. The pair has been consistently declining since mid-September, breaking below key support levels and now testing the 1.0800 mark. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is positioned at 1.0983, while the 200-day EMA lies slightly higher at 1.0909. The fact that the price is trading well below both EMAs confirms that the short- to medium-term trend remains bearish. As long as the pair stays below these levels, the downside remains favored, with 1.0750 acting as the next major support area.

From a momentum perspective, the MACD indicator shows a strong bearish signal, with the MACD line extending further below the signal line. The histogram remains in negative territory, suggesting that the current downtrend may persist in the short term. A break below the 1.0800 psychological level could accelerate further declines toward the next support around 1.0750, while a recovery would need to break above the 1.0900 handle to signal a potential reversal.

EUR/USD daily chart