Select Language

AUD/USD bounces back from 0.6650 on firm RBA hawkish bets

Breaking news

AUD/USD bounces back from 0.6650 on firm RBA hawkish bets

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.10.22 20:23
AUD/USD bounces back from 0.6650 on firm RBA hawkish bets

update 2024.10.22 20:23

  • AUD/USD recovers sharply from 0.6650 as the RBA is less likely to cut interest rates this year.
  • RBA Hauser didn't offer any interest rate cues and preferred to remain data-dependent.
  • The US Dollar clings to gains as traders see the Fed following a moderate policy-easing cycle.

The AUD/USD pair rebounds strongly from the key support of 0.6650 in Tuesday's European session. The Aussie pair discovers strong buying interest on expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue with a restrictive monetary policy stance for the remainder of the year.

On Monday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cited the strong employment data as a surprise for him. On the monetary policy outlook, RBA Hauser didn't provide a clear direction and said, "The central bank is ready to respond in either direction depending on incoming data." The comment from Hauser left doors open for further interest rate hikes.

Meanwhile, a larger-than-expected interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has also improved Australia's economic outlook, given that the nation is the largest trading partner of China. The PBoC reduced its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points (bps), while economists were anticipating a 20-bps rate cut.

However, the near-term appeal of the Australian Dollar (AUD) could be hurt by risk-off market sentiment due to uncertainty over the United States (US) presidential elections that are around the corner. S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses in the European session, exhibiting a sharp decline in investors' risk appetite.

The US Dollar (USD) holds onto gains near a fresh 11-month high as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates gradually in November and December. The Fed can afford to avoid a sizeable interest rate cut in November, as expected earlier, after a slew of upbeat US economic data for September that diminished economic slowdown risks.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

 


Date

Created

 : 2024.10.22

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.10.22

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Oil market in China still markedly oversupplied in September - Commerzbank

The oil market in China was oversupplied by 930 thousand barrels per day in September, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.10.22 21:30

EUR/USD: Strictly rangebound above 1.08 - Scotiabank

EUR/USD trade has been a little choppy, within a limited range, so far on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2024.10.22 21:10

Crude oil processing in China down year on year for six months in a row - Commerzbank

Chinese oil refineries processed 58.7 million tons of crude oil in September, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.10.22 20:54

USD/CAD: CAD remains weak and oversold - Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has had a minor reprieve this morning as it holds little changed on the session but some 20 ticks above yesterday's low against the USD in the mid-1.38s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2024.10.22 20:51

Oil prices decline sharply on a weekly basis - Commerzbank

The Brent oil price fell by 7.6% last week, its strongest weekly loss since early September, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.10.22 20:38

Crude Oil struggles to hold $70.00 as markets become more bearish

Crude Oil struggles to hold ground and orbits around the $70.00 level on Tuesday. The pressure on Oil's price comes from markets repricing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut projections in the near future. With decreasing odds of an aggressive
New
update2024.10.22 20:30

USD remains firm but gains slow - Scotiabank

The US Dollar (usd) is trading flatter against its major currency peers as DXY gains show some--tentative--signs of stalling around the 104 area (which was the upper end of the range I suggested the DXY could reach at the start of the month as the index started to show signs of gaining momentum), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2024.10.22 20:26

AUD/USD bounces back from 0.6650 on firm RBA hawkish bets

The AUD/USD pair rebounds strongly from the key support of 0.6650 in Tuesday's European session.
New
update2024.10.22 20:22

US Dollar supported as markets cool down Fed's rate cut cycle prospects

The US Dollar (USD) slightly retraces on Tuesday following a small sprint higher on Monday that drove the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback's value against six major currencies, to a fresh 11-week high after US equities retreated from their all-time highs.
New
update2024.10.22 20:00

Silver price at 12-year high - Commerzbank

For some time, Silver lagged behind the rise in the price of Gold, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.10.22 20:00

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel