In Tuesday’s session, the USD/ZAR faced some selling pressure and declined to 18.933, down by 0.25%, and seems to be on its way to retest the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 18.880.
All eyes are on Wednesday. South Africa reports the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the headline figure expected to increase slightly to 4.8% YoY, while the core inflation rate is anticipated to remain stable at 4.7% YoY. Retail Sales from July are expected to come in at -1.0% YoY, compared to the 0.9% YoY decrease in June. Regarding the South African Reserve Bank meeting on Thursday, the decision will likely be to maintain its interest rates at 8.25% despite some previous expectations of a hike. As for now, for the next twelve years, markets aren’t foreseeing any hikes and discounts that the bank will maintain rates at 8.25%.
On the Fed’s side, Markets expect the bank to keep rates steady at 5.25-5.50%, but Chair Powell will likely show a hawkish tone and signal future rate hikes which could benefit the USD. Strong US economic performance, especially in services, and a mixed labour market suggest the Fed may leave room for one more hike to curb inflation risks.
The daily chart shows signs of bullish exhaustion for USD/ZAR. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a neutral stance above its midline, displaying a flat slope in the positive territory, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) presents neutral red bars. On the bigger picture, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that the bears are struggling to challenge the overall bullish trend.
Support levels: 18.880 (20-day SMA), 18.728 (100-day SMA). 18.500.
Resistance levels: 19.000, 19.050, 19.150.
|Today last price||18.933|
|Today Daily Change||-0.0688|
|Today Daily Change %||-0.36|
|Today daily open||19.0018|
|Previous Daily High||19.0902|
|Previous Daily Low||18.9346|
|Previous Weekly High||19.1283|
|Previous Weekly Low||18.7634|
|Previous Monthly High||19.2985|
|Previous Monthly Low||17.8264|
|Daily Fibonacci 38.2%||18.9941|
|Daily Fibonacci 61.8%||19.0308|
|Daily Pivot Point S1||18.9275|
|Daily Pivot Point S2||18.8533|
|Daily Pivot Point S3||18.7719|
|Daily Pivot Point R1||19.0831|
|Daily Pivot Point R2||19.1645|
|Daily Pivot Point R3||19.2387|
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