EUR/USD Price Forecast: Softens to near 1.1350, overbought RSI condition eyed

• EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1365 in Thursday's early European session, down 0.28% on the day. 
• The positive bias of the pair prevails above the 100-day EMA, but the overbought RSI condition might cap its upside. 
• The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.1455; the first downside target to watch is 1.1264.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.1365 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision later on Thursday. The ECB is widely anticipated to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its April meeting, marking a sixth consecutive reduction amid global tariff tensions and economic uncertainty. 

According to the daily chart, the constructive outlook of EUR/USD remains intact as the major pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 71.50, indicating the overbought RSI condition. This suggests that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/USD appreciation.

The upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 1.1455 acts as an immediate resistance level for the major pair. A decisive break above this level could see a rally to 1.1481, the high of January 13, 2022. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 1.1608, the high of November 9, 2021.

In the bearish case, the initial support level is located at 1.1264, the low of April 15. Any follow-through selling below the mentioned level could expose the 1.1100 psychological mark. Extended losses could see a drop to 1.0780, the low of April 2. 

 

EUR/USD daily chart