Silver rises on safe-haven demand as US data disruptions persist

• Silver trades around $52.60, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid limited visibility on upcoming US data.
• Delays and potential gaps in October statistics fuel economic concerns following the US government's reopening.
• Reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut limit the upside potential for the non-yielding metal.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $52.60 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.50% on the day. The precious metal regains traction as investors turn to safe-haven assets, while US economic data remains severely disrupted after the federal government's reopening.

Uncertainty continues to dominate the macro environment. Early private-sector readings for October point to a cooling labor market and weakening consumer confidence, while inflation concerns persist. The Director of the US National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, warned that some October data may "never materialize" after agencies were unable to collect information during the shutdown. This situation complicates the assessment of US economic momentum and supports safe-haven flows into Silver.

However, the upside remains capped by shifting monetary policy expectations. Recent cautious remarks from officials of the Federal Reserve (Fed) have reduced the chance of a rate cut in December, a negative factor for a non-interest-bearing asset. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign only about a 50% chance to a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from nearly 70% a week ago. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem stressed the limited room to ease policy without risking excessive accommodation, while Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari reiterated that inflation remains too high at around 3%.

Supply-side risks are also providing additional support. The recent decision by the US Department of the Interior to add Silver, along with Copper and metallurgical Coal, to its list of "critical minerals" opens the door to potential Section 232 trade investigations. Similar measures applied to other metals in the past have raised tariff risks and heightened concerns about supply.

Overall, Silver remains on a constructive footing in the short term, backed by a mix of macroeconomic uncertainty, persistent data disruptions and geopolitical concerns related to supply. However, its trajectory will largely depend on how US monetary policy expectations evolve over the coming weeks.